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# Influidence

Founder-Led Investment Research Delivering Clear, Actionable Insights

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## Posts

- [Insights](https://influidence.com/insights/)
- [Postalzinho from Portugal](https://influidence.com/postalzinho-from-portugal/) - Months ago, I moved to Portugal for personal reasons. The first thing that struck me after leaving Hong Kong was how low the buildings were, allowing you to see more of the blue sky. Portuguese culture is remarkably strong, far stronger than French culture at present, evident in how locals eat traditional dishes daily and in traditions like fado persisting in concert halls and the Tunas university students performing in their academic costumes. What I discovered is that a country's strength and character lie not just in economics or politics, but in how seriously its people take their traditions, their culture, and their daily practices. Portugal has given me some of the sweetest moments of these past years, from the calm of Alentejo to the beauty of Douro and Porto's architecture.
- [How Stock Picking, Fund Selection, and Entrepreneurship Reinforce One Another](https://influidence.com/how-stock-picking-fund-selection-and-entrepreneurship-reinforce-one-another/) - There are so many ways to be an investor, and I wanted to share what I find valuable in combining different roles. Being a stock picker, an allocator, and an entrepreneur simultaneously teaches you lessons that each role alone cannot provide, and integrating these perspectives has become essential to how I serve my clients better.
- [Testing the Five Rules of Diversification](https://influidence.com/testing-the-five-rules-of-diversification/) - In the past year I had the opportunity to delve back into portfolio construction for some clients, and after three years away from managing portfolios I found it genuinely challenging to understand the new rules of the engineering, which had shifted further than I expected in what felt like a short absence. To be a good allocator you need to hold a vision about the world, about where it is going and about what actually drives markets, and when I decided to go on the investing world tour I thought that visiting all of those places would help me understand the world better and build a vision that sat closer to the truth.
- [Vusion Group: More Than a Walmart Story](https://influidence.com/vusion-group-more-than-a-walmart-story/) - It is tempting to reduce the Vusion story to a single line: the company that is digitizing Walmart's stores. I think that undersells it. Walmart was the first mover to commit to Vusion's full platform at scale, and organically the most powerful retailer on the planet, but the AGM reinforced what I think is the real thesis: this is a company that keeps expanding what it sells to a client, in step with what that client needs next — and the market it is selling into, especially in the US, is still barely penetrated.
- [Russia, From the Inside Out](https://influidence.com/russia-from-the-inside-out/) - Since the beginning of 2026, I have been noticing an unusual number of Russian travellers in places I would not naturally associate with Russian tourism. First in Turkiye, which has long been a corridor, but then increasingly in Southeast Asia: Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia. Not the occasional encounter you would expect, but a sustained, visible presence. Families with luggage in Bangkok, young professionals at coworking spaces in Ho Chi Minh City, groups at resort hotels in Phuket who seemed slightly too purposeful, slightly too aware that something might change soon.
- [China Never Goes Dark](https://influidence.com/china-never-goes-dark/) - I had the window seat on the flight out of Shanghai. We took off from Pudong in the early evening, banked north, and for the next two hours I could not stop looking down. Anyone who flies regularly knows the usual rhythm of a night departure from a large city. The grid blazes beneath you for a few minutes, the suburbs thin into scattered clusters, and then you are over darkness, the occasional town passing like a small ship at sea. That is what cities normally look like from altitude. A bright centre, a fading edge, and then nothing.
- [The Operator Voice – Strait of Hormuz](https://influidence.com/the-operator-voice-strait-of-hormuz/) - In this piece, I step away from headlines and listen directly to the operators moving cargo across a fractured world. Over the past few weeks, earnings calls have started to sound less like quarterly updates and more like dispatches from the front line of global trade. From container lessors describing a market quietly losing 10% of its effective capacity as ships reroute around conflict zones, to tanker executives navigating what they call “violent” freight dynamics driven by geopolitics, a new structure is emerging. The Strait of Hormuz is not just a chokepoint—it is a filter reshaping flows, pricing power, and even chemistry supply chains. What stands out is not just disruption, but adaptation: substitution routes, compliant vs shadow fleets, and a system that is fragmenting in real time. The market is no longer pricing efficiency—it is pricing uncertainty.
- [Postcard From The Grand Bazaar](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-the-grand-bazaar/) - In this piece, I walk through what a 560-year-old covered market in Istanbul reveals about how trade, trust, and money actually work. From the Ottoman guild system that banned competition and made theft almost unthinkable, to the central bank that recently sent carts of cash through medieval corridors because the formal financial system couldn't keep up — the Grand Bazaar is less a tourist destination than a living case study in institutional economics. I reflect on price discovery without screens, credit without contracts, and a wholesale gold network that moves billions through canvas-covered trolleys pushed by hand. Some of the most sophisticated market mechanics in the world never needed a terminal to function.
- [Hunting Insights in Earnings Calls](https://influidence.com/hunting-insights-in-earnings-calls/) - In this piece, I explore what earnings calls can reveal beyond financial headlines. From fintech expansion in Latin America to shifts in retail logistics, mining activity, defense demand, and global shipping dynamics, I reflect on how listening closely to operators helps connect economic and political narratives to real business realities. Earnings calls offer a unique lens into strategy, market sentiment, and the subtle forces shaping companies’ trajectories.
- [Postcard From Engelberg](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-engelberg/) - In this postcard from Engelberg, I revisit the RV Capital's annual gathering (global value-investing community) and reflect on how it reshaped my professional trajectory. I discuss the culture of concentrated, independent investing, the realities of allocator decision-making, the demands of being a public-company CEO, and the structural challenges faced by younger investors trying to enter a small, insular ecosystem built on trust, patience, and long-term credibility.
- [Assessing CEOs: A Missing Layer in Investment Analysis](https://influidence.com/assessing-ceos-a-missing-layer-in-investment-analysis/) - In this article, I explore leadership as an often-overlooked layer of investment analysis, focusing on how a CEO’s personality shapes strategy, culture, and capital allocation over time. I draw on established psychological frameworks, empirical research, and real-world examples to examine why certain traits consistently matter and why their relevance depends on context. Rather than searching for a universal leadership profile, this piece reflects on fit, judgment, and the human factors that financial models tend to leave aside.
- [Unpacking China’s Growing Pet Market](https://influidence.com/unpacking-chinas-growing-pet-market/) - Pet ownership in China is booming, shaped by younger generations treating pets as family and driving rapid industry growth. Premium pet food, health products, and digital sales are surging, but fierce competition and copycat brands make it a challenging space for investors. The pet economy mirrors changing lifestyles and a new wave of innovation across urban China.
- [Postcard From Cyprus](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-cyprus/) - In this postcard from Cyprus, I reflect on the island’s economic structure beyond tourism, the realities of seasonality, and the role of finance, shipping, and professional services as core growth drivers. I also touch on the country’s historical and political constraints, its post-crisis financial reset, and the factors that have allowed a small, divided island to attract and retain significant amounts of international capital.
- [The Art of Field Research: Building an Edge Through Applied Intelligence](https://influidence.com/building-an-edge-through-applied-intelligence/) - Learn how field research and applied intelligence provide investors with practical insights to gain a competitive edge.
- [Yalla Group: An Introduction and Q&A with Investor Relations](https://influidence.com/yalla-group-an-introduction-and-qa-with-investor-relations/) - Stepping into this conversation with Yalla Group, I expected to uncover a clear story of growth and differentiation. Instead, I found myself questioning where real advantage comes from in a market built on speed, culture, and global competition. As I pieced together the insights from Investor Relations, and the sharp questions raised during our discussion, I realized this exercise wasn’t just about evaluating a company. It was about understanding how far product, leadership, and market fit can truly take a business in an arena dominated by giants. This piece reflects that exploration: what Yalla is today, what it might become, and the uncertainties that still shape the path ahead.
- [Fresh News From Kri Kri](https://influidence.com/fresh-news-from-kri-kri/) - In this conversation with Kri Kri’s CFO, I walked through the company’s major capacity-expansion plan, the expected impact of the Greek yogurt market’s rapid growth, and the operational improvements tied to new production lines. We also discussed their early steps in the U.S. market, margin dynamics linked to milk prices and commodities, the development of higher-margin specialty products, and the ongoing share-buyback program.
- [Postcard From Bucharest](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-bucharest/) - Arriving in Bucharest, I was struck by how quickly the city dismantled the clichés I had unknowingly carried with me. What I expected to be grey and distant revealed itself as young, artistic, and layered, a place where Roman roots meet Byzantine echoes, Central European influence, and a rising sense of ambition. Yet beneath this vibrancy lies a more complex reality: a society where trust moves slowly, networks matter deeply, and governance still struggles to match the country’s economic potential. Walking its streets, noticing both its wealth and its contradictions, I realised how often our assumptions fail to capture the true character of a place. Bucharest reminded me that understanding a country requires more than data, it demands curiosity, humility, and the willingness to let experience rewrite the stories we thought we knew.
- [Reflection on AI](https://influidence.com/reflection-on-ai/) - Explore the evolving meaning of AI, its rapid growth, market hype, and why big tech dominates the AI landscape. Understand the realities behind the buzz.
- [“They Could Have Been Doctors”](https://influidence.com/they-could-have-been-doctors/) - Sitting in that master class years ago, I was struck by the contrast between investing for pure profit and searching for a deeper purpose. As I’ve engaged with family offices and individual investors, I’ve come to realize that today’s investment landscape is shaped as much by questions of meaning, social impact, and responsibility as by financial returns. Now more than ever, I grapple with whether investing can move beyond numbers, helping investors not just grow wealth, but also shape the world and legacy they desire.
- [How Institutional Investors Choose Managers](https://influidence.com/how-institutional-investors-choose-managers/) - Drawing from personal experience as a fund selector, it’s clear that institutional investors look for managers who offer not just strong performance and structure, but also authenticity and enduring relationships in an increasingly competitive space. The way you present your story and build trust can be as crucial as your track record when raising capital.
- [What’s Up With France?](https://influidence.com/whats-up-with-france/) - Explore France’s political instability, economic pressures, and cultural shifts in 2025. Is France still an investable market amid rising debt and societal change?
- [Eyes Wide Open: My Interview With Forbes France](https://influidence.com/interview-with-forbes-france/) - Discover how Influidence uses direct observation and cultural insights to uncover unique investment opportunities beyond traditional data analysis.
- [Trade Flows and the Gap Between Numbers and Reality](https://influidence.com/trade-flows-and-the-gap-between-numbers-and-reality/) - Explore trade flows in 2025: why data contradicts political deglobalization talk and what investors should really watch.
- [(Another) Postcard from Shanghai & Pet Fair Asia 2025](https://influidence.com/another-postcard-from-shanghai-pet-fair-asia-2025/) - Exploring Shanghai’s vibrant pet industry fair and reflections on China’s deep-rooted role in global manufacturing amid shifting geopolitical and economic dynamics.
- [A visit to Mader’s Maintenance Center](https://influidence.com/a-visit-to-maders-maintenance-center/) - Mader Group’s Perth visit reveals a strong employee-centric culture leveraging tech innovations for safety and efficient equipment maintenance.
- [Mader Group Deep Dive](https://influidence.com/mader-group-deep-dive/) - Mader Group leverages a people-centric culture, proprietary tech, and flexible service models to lead equipment maintenance in mining, energy, rail, and infrastructure, expanding internationally with growth potential in the US and Canada.
- [Meeting with the CFO of Kri Kri - Konstantinos Evangelou Sarmadakis](https://influidence.com/meeting-with-the-cfo-of-kri-kri/) - Focused on high-margin yogurt exports and strategic innovation, Kri Kri fuels growth with disciplined investment and expanding international presence.
- [Is ESG Dead?](https://influidence.com/is-esg-dead/) - Why ESG investing is fading: rising skepticism, shifting priorities, and an uncertain future for sustainable finance in 2025.
- [Reflection on Hospitals](https://influidence.com/reflection-on-hospitals/) - An analytical synthesis of hospital performance determinants, patient decision factors, profitability strategies, and the transformative potential of digital investments in healthcare.
- [Meeting with Paul Hegarty - CFO at Mader Group (MAD ASX)](https://influidence.com/meeting-with-paul-hegarty/) - A conversation with Paul Hegarty from Mader on refining manager-mechanic communication, balancing growth with culture, investor frustrations, and strategic outlook amid a shifting market environment.
- [Investing in China: The Balancing Act Between Growth, Control, and Capital Flows](https://influidence.com/investing-in-china/) - An in-depth exploration of China’s investment fund industry, regulatory agencies, enforcement practices, capital mobility protocols, and comparison with Western markets.
- [Postcard from Oslo](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-oslo/) - Discover Oslo’s understated charm—where natural beauty meets smart wealth management, from its disciplined sovereign wealth fund to a thriving knowledge economy rooted in balance and sustainability.
- [Postcard from Athens](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-athens/) - Explore Athens’ rich history and contemporary struggles—from corruption scandals and economic hardship to emerging investment opportunities.
- [Is Greatness Assessable?](https://influidence.com/is-greatness-assessable/) - Explore whether greatness in leadership can truly be assessed. This in-depth article examines the traits, behaviors, and real-world signals that define exceptional CEOs and enduring companies.
- [Digital Labels, Real World: A Field Study on Vusion Group](https://influidence.com/digital-labels-real-world-a-field-study-on-vusion-group/) - Explore a detailed field study on Vusion Group’s electronic shelf labels (ESLs) and their transformative impact on retail operations.
- [Kri Kri: The Quiet Force Behind Greek Yogurt](https://influidence.com/kri-kri-the-quiet-force-behind-greek-yogurt/) - This field study explores Kri Kri’s disciplined growth, innovative product range, and strategic expansion across Europe and the U.S. in the booming Greek yogurt market.
- [The Origin of Grit: On Understanding a CEO’s Past](https://influidence.com/the-origin-of-grit-on-understanding-a-ceos-past/) - Explore how a CEO’s personal history and resilience shape their leadership style and drive organisational success. Learn effective methods to assess leadership beyond traditional metrics
- [Postcard from Shanghai](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-shanghai/) - Shanghai. Explore the distinct business and cultural environment —its super app ecosystem, shifting consumer trends, and challenges for Western companies adapting to a fast-evolving market.
- [Postcard from Istanbul](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-istanbul/) - A vivid exploration of Istanbul’s unique blend of history, culture, and economic challenges, revealing the city’s resilience and entrepreneurial spirit.
- [Postcard from Seoul](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-seoul/) - During my visit amid a brief martial law, Seoul revealed itself as a city of quiet contrasts—elegant architecture, disciplined yet warm people, and a steady rhythm of progress. Beneath its muted exterior lies resilience and innovation, inviting a deeper look into its subtle strength.
- [Postcard from Frankfurt (and thoughts across Europe)](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-frankfurt/) - A candid look at Frankfurt. Contrasts of wealth, social realities, and Europe’s race for autonomy in raw materials. Why faith in the European dream is fading.
- [Postcard from Omaha](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-omaha/) - A firsthand account from the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha, capturing Warren Buffett’s leadership reflections, succession plans, and the unique investor community gathered for this iconic event.
- [Postcard from New York](https://influidence.com/postcard-from-new-york/) - A reflection on returning to New York. A city of vibrant chaos, raw beauty, and everyday surprises. Discover why its real charm lies beyond the postcard image.
- [Notes on Shipping](https://influidence.com/notes-on-shipping/) - Explore how maritime shipping powers 90% of world trade, from key industry players and freight indices to green innovation, alliances, and overlooked investment opportunities.

## Pages

- [Home](https://influidence.com/) - At Influidence, we deliver founder-led, independent investment research that goes beyond financial data. Our rigorous, on-the-ground approach uncovers insights that traditional analysis misses, empowering professional investors to make confident decisions.
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## Categories

- [Markets & Macro](https://influidence.com/category/markets-macro/) - Analysis of global economic trends, market cycles, and macroeconomic forces shaping investment and business decisions.
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